CORPORATE CROSSFIRE:
NAVIGATING THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER -
ANDREW STAPLES

CRA: Andrew Staples, welcome to the TechBurst Talks podcast. Andy: Thanks me very much. CRA: It's gonna be a fun one today because we're gonna talk about technology and innovation, but we're gonna look at it from a different perspective than I know we would end this podcast because what we're gonna talk about is the current geopolitical situation. And how that's impacting businesses across the region. We'll cover things like tariffs and who's winning and who's losing. But most importantly what I want to get to is, , what kind of advice are you giving clients and business leaders about how they can actually navigate this very complex, dynamic environment? And since I'm not an expert on this, why don't you explain your background because you are the expert in this area, and maybe a bit about what you're doing today and how you help your clients navigate the situation. Andy: Excellent. Thanks Thomas. That's, uh, very generous to call me an expert. I, I've been in the field for, you know, 20, 25 years or so, on and off. Had an academic career before I joined the Economist group. I was in the intelligence unit for, um, many years. I. and then [00:01:00] more recently I was running the research led thought leadership part of the, uh, economist group, economist impact. I jumped out of that late last year to set up my own geopolitical advisory GeoPoll, uh, Asia, and I'm generally working with multinationals. It's the C-suites and boards of multinationals that I work with. There's a few other things that I do to keep me sharp and to sharpen that expertise, I guess. So I'm an associate fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in their geoeconomics and strategy plaster, uh, and a senior advisor for, um, some other organizations and philanthropic, organizations and, And I do a little bit of, executive education, here in, Singapore for National University of Singapore. CRA: So if that doesn't make you an expert, I'm very curious about the qualifications to get to that. So I, I do wanna make one comment about you leaving the Economist and going out on your own to start your own geopolitical advisory firm. Could you have picked a better time? I mean, literally like within two months of you starting this, [00:02:00] Trump takes, office in the US and then the tariff situation starts. And we have a level of uncertainty now that we've never really experienced in business before. Andy: I think of I could have picked a better time six months earlier, been would have given me a bit more time, to get, um, organised and so on. But, but you're right, there's sort huge demand. There's a lot going on in the world, a lot of uncertainty and hence a lot of sort of need to try to cut through some of that noise and to work out what's going on, what it means for organisations for individuals, for strategy, and so on. So, yeah. Um, good timing. CRA: And then one other quick question on this. So before you had the safety of working for a large corporate, now you're out on your own, you're developing your own portfolio career, which I admire because I've been trying to do it off and on for eight years as well. How has that changed how you look at the world, how you do your work? Andy: , it's a big change and I've always had a sort of single employer, but I've always been working towards, as you just mentioned there, towards this kind of idea of a portfolio career. I looked around and, and had to think about [00:03:00] where I was. With my employer, what I wanted to be doing, what was going on externally. I thought, now's, now's the time. the other part of that, I think, o over the years of getting increasingly more senior within the Economist group, I, found myself. Bit, stepping back a bit from the, uh, things that I'm particularly interested in, the geopolitics, the strategy and so on, and end up running teams and spending a lot of time in Excel spreadsheets and uh, and budgets and all this kind of thing. So, um, you know, some push and pull factors, I guess, uh, to take me to where I'm today. CRA: I can relate to that. 'cause whenever people ask me, well, since you're on your own, what do you focus on? And I'm like. Well, whatever I want, whatever sounds cool at the time, it's like I can be that flexible. I'm not tied down to, I have to cover this. I, I do what I find interesting. So I think that's one of the fun things about it. Andy: Exactly. I, I think just to build on that, it's, I, I've really found the time to focus on the things that I enjoy and that I've found over the years that I'm good at. So, you know, focus on that. And, and that's across different forums, so whether that's [00:04:00] engaging with C-Suite or it's doing advisory or it's, um, executive education, it, it's really sharpening that focus back onto things like geopolitics strategy and so on. CRA: So what I want to start about first is looking just at the geopolitical situation. So we'll come to the business impact in a bit, but let's look at Asia right now. So how would you describe what is going on with the geopolitical tensions? With the tariffs? What's driving those tensions that, or the momentum that you're seeing across the region? Andy: So I, I guess in the word tense, and just to expand on that and uncertain and somewhat volatile as well. so I was talking to somebody at the end of last year and we were looking ahead into 2025. We'd had the election in the US so we knew that. would come in for a second term, in January, and trying to identify what would be some of the top themes for, uh, for 2025. And I think a lot of right. Trump Trade and tech. and you know, the first half of this year has definitely been a focus on, on trade, of course, with tariffs. The so-called [00:05:00] liberation Day tariffs on April 2nd, and everything that's flowed since then, even before that with Canada and Mexico and, and I think the second half of the year that's, that's going to continue, but we'll also see some of these other issues bubble to the surface. we just had the Shangri Dialogues in, , in Singapore. Pete, Hegsworth uh, was in town and I guess it it some level sort of. Saying all the right things when it comes to us engagement with, Asia, or particularly with its sort of allies and, tho those countries with which it's got a, a sort of deep relationship, particularly thinking about Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and and so on. just to, you know, before we sort of zoom in on, on specific areas like, security, The economic impact of tariffs, global growth will slow this year. If you look at projections from WTO IMF you know, whoever it might be. And that's on the back of, you know, all of this un uncertainty. and you know, at the heart of that, we've got this, issue around technology and really. Again, if you boil all of that away, if you start thinking what are some of the key [00:06:00] dynamics in the global political economy and how's that to down in Asia, it's that pursuit of power who has leadership and particularly in cutting edge technologies and hence everything around semiconductor chips and, AI and data centres and all the rest of it. So, politics, economics, security. There's a lot going on in the region and a lot of uncertainty around that as well. CRA: not an easy time to be a politician anywhere across Asia right now. But also to be an executive because the impact this is happening on a lot of these companies in Asia, whether it's , the Western backed MNCs or the Asian based large corporates. it's just creating a lot of chaos for everybody. How are they managing this and what are you hearing from your clients on it? Andy: absolutely. So, so one of the hats I wear in Singapore, I'm the forum chair for IMA Asia, which is a peer group for, c-suite basically. And the membership is predominantly European, north American headquartered firms. Or demographic that I'm interacting with are, are the Asia Pacific heads of those firms. And it's a wide sector, so, [00:07:00] logistics, supply chain, chemicals, heavy manufacturing, FMCG, tech, finance, insurance, all the rest of it. The key issue over the past four months has, has been uncertainty Uh,, And what do we do about it? and there's a lot there that we can unpack, but it's absolutely the case that it's holding back investment plans, that uncertainty means, there's a lack of clarity on what clients are doing, uh, where the market is going and so on. And therefore, this is now not the time to be making big investments. And When I say big investments, should we bring more of our, our, our supply chain out to China? And if so, to where? I mean, Vietnam's a fascinating story, right? Over the past 10 years, it's really benefited from that China+1 outflow of manufacturing. And you could say. Successfully because it's trade surplus with the United States just exploded in that period as well. And hence it came right into the crosshairs of the Trump administration. And they've been slapped with, some of the highest, reciprocal [00:08:00] tariffs, for anybody. so where do we go from here? And if you are, a, a firm with big supply chains in manufacturing, particularly in tech, there's Chinese content in. Do you move outta Vietnam again CRA: Okay. Andy: is that? To India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines. And you know, each country has its pros and cons and so on, but you're not gonna do that until you've got some clarity on actually what is the tariff regime? CRA: I find this fascinating because a lot of companies have adopted China plus one or someone like Samsung. When we talk about that Vietnam situation it's because Samsung's 20 to 30% of GDP, and I've been out at their centers there just north of Hanoi. it's as big as a large city. And that's just the complex where they're manufacturing PCs, semiconductors. Mobile phones, you name it. You go there, you think, well outsmarted Trump now because suddenly you move into a country where there's low tariffs. As soon as he sees that it's still not being manufactured in the us So I'm still gonna slap another tariff on you. Andy: I think people are stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment. And, and hence this, this whole idea of sort of wait and see and of holding your [00:09:00] breath, that 90 day period comes up that will, terminates in, in about a month from now. So beginning of, uh, of July, will we get the clarity that everybody wants from that time on, or is this. the new normal CRA: But do you think this could actually be a good opportunity for some of the countries in Southeast Asia? Andy: Absolutely CRA: And South Asia as well. Let's face it. In South Asia, massive. Andy: Absolutely we're talking about Asia, but you could, you could talk globally. I mean, I spoke for the Canadian conference that was in town in February in Singapore, a couple of weeks after the inauguration. And, you know, the headlines were full of 51st state and, and all the rest of it. And, and the sense of anger at that conference was. white hot And, and where they were putting that, the turning that anger into energy to really refocus their activities in, in Asia, in the Indo-Pacific, finding new opportunities for growth, reducing dependency on the United States. And all of this is sort of good stuff that they should have been doing anyway with Europe. [00:10:00] Nato, yes, you need to increase your defense spending. You should have been doing this for the past 15, 20 years or. When we had the Asian financial crisis back in 97, 98, that spurred ASEAN to really, integrate to come together with a, an ASEAN free trade agreement. But everybody knows that there are still monumental barriers to trade internally within this block of, Southeast Asian. countries But nobody's really wanted to take the bull by the horns and say, how, you know, how do we standardise regulations and labeling and safety and this, that, and other in order to create more of a, a seamless market across Southeast Asia? All of those conversations are front and center. Now. We've just had an Ian summit. the GCC and with China in Malaysia. And a lot of the talk there in addition to those countries was about howan can get its house in order, to become more of competitive, uh, economic. CRA: Now I want to come back to China for a minute because I, I, when I first heard about people talking with the [00:11:00] China+1 strategies, you know, years ago I always wondered, is it actually gonna impact China that much? Because there's just so much growth everywhere anyway. How is China managing this? They seem to be, in my perspective, just sitting back a bit and letting it go because they're gonna watch the chaos. But do you see them now going out there and trying to develop a lot more stronger ties with certain countries or certain businesses? So So there's Andy: a lot going on there. And, and you're right, this China plus one has been going on for some time. Some of that is simple. the growth story in China, which has been incredibly successful. And if you were in China in the 1990s for cheap labor, stitching shirts together or whatever, you're not there today, you're in Bangladesh, so you would've seen an outflow of that, FDI anyway. I think more recently, particularly for Trump. That first adminis administration onwards and continuing, uh, under Biden, these issues around, national security resilience. That was definitely accelerated because of COVID and so on. And taking a look again at your supply chains and your over reliance geopolitically, over [00:12:00] 10 years ago now. Japan got a, a, a taste of what export controls look like with rare earth critical minerals and so on, and that spurred them to think about moving some of their supply chain outta China. what does all of this mean for China? it's spurred a lot of domestic innovation and, growth, the whole sort of, China 2025 strategy has been incredibly successful. what we're seeing now is, and what we expect to see, continue is a, is a tsunami of Chinese overseas investment as those firms come out of China looking for opportunities. And particularly in those countries where China has a very strong, if not dominant trading position, , they've been involved in infrastructure development through the Belt and Road initiative and so on. So yeah, that's the sort of next stage. We've seen all of this foreign direct investment go into China, since the, the 1980s. Investment. CRA: And I think it can actually be good for some Chinese brands as well. , Because let's face it, the smartphones that come outta China [00:13:00] are very good phones. They just don't have the brand or the price tag that you have with a Samsung or an Apple. And if this does lead to anti-American or anti-Western sentiment, people might start thinking, well, maybe. I'll just go for a cheaper Chinese alternative. I mean, look what's going on with electric vehicles and how dominant they've become in electrical vehicles globally. Andy: Yeah, well, BYD is the top selling car here in Singapore, has been since I think January or, or February or something like that. And, and I think that's a very good case in point. So yeah, you're right. there's a lot of consolidation that will take place, particularly EVs and so on, and as other firms have found, you know, whether they're from, from Europe or North America or Japanese firms, you know, in the eighties and nineties going overseas comes with a whole set of challenges. opportunities as well. You really need to sharpen your game. it's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out for. CRA: Okay, I wanna switch tack a bit now and look at the role of the MNCs within Asia, um, and the Western MC. So I've worked for a couple in Asia. When you're in [00:14:00] Western based MNC in Asia, you're always the third priority. It's always North America, Europe. You're never really prioritized, which means it's a very challenging place to be a business leader. Now you throw all this complexity of the current geopolitical situation, which a lot of it is aimed at China. how do you advise these leaders that you're talking to because the role was already tough and this is just sort of making it even more tough. And I think they're gonna be really underappreciated as they go through all of this turmoil. Andy: it depends on individuals and firms and and so on. But, but generally some of the sort of general trends that I see and, uh, and particularly over the last sort of six months or so, uh, is that, you know, head offices are, are, are increasingly, concerned with themselves and that and their domestic markets and that's. Particularly the case if, if, if you're an American, uh, multinational, uh, as well. So, you know, one of the challenges and opportunities for business leaders, in Asia, is to be that conduit of intelligence back to head office. This is what's going on, but also at the same time saying, we know what we're doing. Let us get on with things [00:15:00] and, and to a certain degree. There's a bit of space for some of those people to operate in when head office and everybody is, is sort of concerned with, domestic issues, thousands of, miles away. Then if you play your cards right, you've got a bit of space, to do things here, without everybody looking over your shoulder all the time. Right. but that, that, that sort of, being on the ground, being able to send back intelligence event. About what's going send back market, in, in intelligence about how things are, are, are changing and keep flying the flag for the operations in, in this part of the world because, western firms here in, in Asia, feel that they are, you know, second, third priorities, for head offices. So there are pros, pros and cons within this as well. CRA: geopolitics has impacted the region, but it's not just the geopolitics that's impacting what goes on in Asia. And I wanna go back to the the pre pandemic days because I was in Singapore for 15 years and I was there during the boom era where you had every MNC was setting up their innovation and R&D labs. In Singapore, you had this big [00:16:00] influx of venture capital firms really driving the startup environment. So it was really the hub for innovation. But what's happened in recent years is a lot of that buzz has gone to the Middle East. Because of the spend coming out of Saudi UAE, Qatar. you're seeing a lot of companies put their focus there because I wanna go where the money is. But also you're seeing a lot of talent shifting there as well, because they're paying a lot of money and Singapore has low taxes. UAE, Saudi, you're gonna pay no taxes. So it's quite an interesting environment. So how do you think that has been impacting the businesses and the MNCs in Asia as well? Andy: Look, I I think it's a very interesting dynamic there. And, and it's something that's been building for some time, all of the political challenges in Hong Kong. that was one phase of all of this. COVID, the cost of Singapore, the cost of keeping people here and, but where else are you going to go within Asia? I mean, Tokyo's a fantastic city. but it's not a Singapore and it's, it's not Kong. And then you've got this very attractive pro business, environment in, [00:17:00] in the Middle East. and so naturally I think you see a, clustering there and the, the investment in these leading, industries as well, whether that's, you know, data centers or building ai, financial services. You it just makes sense now. so you could say that, that someone like Singapore is going to, be a relative loser to GCC, uh, in that sense. But it's still, a critical hub city as, as is Hong Kong. So I just think we'll see a, a, rejigging of who's where, and. doing what the ASEAN GCC summit, this is the second, only the second summit that they have the first one of two years ago in, uh, in Saudi. That's a really interesting new growth relationship there. One, once you throw in India as well, they're links with the Middle East and growing links with Asia. Politically economically security as well. It's a very interesting sort of growth triangle. So how will that unfold? You know, in the coming years [00:18:00] is something to watch quite closely. CRA: And I think on that, what's interesting is the GCC has the money. They don't have the population and the number of consumers to drive a lot of this, so they need external markets to go after. If they wanna lead in ai, for instance, it's great if they can use it internally and they will get a lot of value out of it. Then you gotta start figuring out where else can I take it to? So. Andy: well, you know, India's on your doorstep with 1.4 billion people. You've got, what is it? I can't remember the latest figure, 680 million people in, in Southeast Asia. And, you know, India's the fastest growing large economy in the world CRA: Yeah. Andy: growing somewhere around about 5% as well. So it, it, it's a good strategic fit, isn't it? CRA: And I think Singapore will come back from this. I think they realize that there was a slowdown after the pandemic, and there was that period where you had your natural outflow of people, where people come and normally do a, let's say two to five to seven year stint, and then they move on. They didn't have that influx during that period. So I think I. They'll start getting the buzz back. I'm sure some of the stuff in GCC will be great, some will be overhyped and they'll be brought back to reality and I think there [00:19:00] will be the shift back again. I'm curious to see how that's going to go. I. Andy: and I think also, what does Singapore have going for? It? It, it's physical location, but the, you know, the regulatory regime here, government is very smart. They're very good at working out what the issues are working with industry to, to, to try to improve them, uh, as well. So I know that, you know, people like the economic development board here in Singapore are on this. They're looking at what the need to. do to Continue to. ensure that Singapore is the attractive business destination that it has been for many many years CRA: And it's still an attractive place to live. I, as I mentioned, I just left after 15 years to move back to Europe. I miss the fact of living somewhere where everything just works. Andy: yeah. I've had this conversation many times, particularly digital government, setting up a business and, and all those type of things is, Is easy and straightforward here. And, and I say that having lived in Japan for 15 years, where, faxes are still a thing, right. CRA: That, that, that's what I love about Japan. The fact that you still need a fax machine to do business. We looked at it from innovation, from the MNC side, but what [00:20:00] we've also seen is Southeast Asia has taken a hit on the VC side. And I know this isn't your core area, but I want to share what I found out when I was just in Singapore for a couple of weeks. All the VCs I'm talking to said there's been a massive slowdown. A lot of that driven by some of the scandals with unicorns across the region, which was Efishery in particular, out of Indonesia. And then people are just realising there's not as many exits. So you have a situation now where you've lost a lot of the tech innovation spend that would be coming into the region for r and d is now moved out. You've lost some of the talent that you'd normally be trying to attract is now going to the Middle East. Now the VC money is moving on. If you were going to advise any country in Southeast Asia, what should you do to increase your attractiveness and momentum? And I know that's a very difficult question 'cause if it was a silver bullet, we'd done it already. Andy: Well look, I think some of the steps that Singapore is taking, and again, going to back to that sort of proactive approach that you see from, from business and industry and industry associations like the Singapore Venture Capital Association is,, why are we facing this? What are the headwinds and what can we do about it? [00:21:00] Governance, I, I think, is one of the issues there and making sure that, you tighten up, governance to every stage of, the development of a, a business. but that's Singapore. And then, you know, going back to this issue of, of actually quite a fragmented market across ASEAN Very different, understandings and applications of, of government requirements in, in Indonesia or Malaysia, Thailand or wherever it might be. So again, getting some of that regional coordination, so that, you know, as an investor coming in and, everybody knows Asia well. We know, Asia is so diverse and it's very difficult to talk about Asia as a single sort of entity. But the more that you can get those commonalities. Ian, or at least some of those core economies of Ian, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, the more attractive it's going to be as an investment. destination CRA: I have one last question for you. , On Asia, it's been a bit more of a fun question. 30 years ago I left the us moved to Europe. I was the typical fresh off the boat American. Didn't know anything about what I was getting myself into. I. this happens, you do [00:22:00] get people who move abroad for the first time. , And especially with a lot of these tech firms that you have in Asia and based outta Singapore , what would you tell if there was a Western fresh off the boat, expat coming out to start working in Asia for the first time? What advice or warnings would you give them about working in Asia? Andy: so I think one of them would, would be just what I mentioned there. don't think of Asia as Europe or America. It's incredibly diverse with your rich. Big advanced economies like Japan, and your emerging economies with huge populations. But, lots of challenges around physical infrastructure, education and all the rest of it. in Indonesia, you've got aging populations, again, Japan. you've got very young populations. get to grips with Asia from that starting point. Travel, as much as you can. when you, you take that taxi or, or whatever it is from the airport in the, in, say Hanoi or or Ho Chi Minh, and you are surrounded by those, 20 year olds on, on scooters. You okay? [00:23:00] You know, this is what a, a population of a hundred million. Growing at 6% and you know, the average age is, is down in its twenties or already, this is what this looked like, but then go to Japan and see, okay, this is very, very different. And this is an economy that's, that's, you know, finding ways to deal with that demographic sort of time bomb that they're, that they're living with, at the moment as well. So you. Network. there's a huge amount of, of knowledge in the region and people I find are, are very friendly. So there no shortage of those, you know, whether it's formal networking groups or associations. So get out and just be inquisitive, curious, ask those questions and, and learn. CRA: You know, I used to spend a lot of time in Taiwan. I'd probably spend at least 30 days a year there for work. What I loved was if I went to go see any of the large firms, I. And the big tech brands, if I would come in, I would get their senior management. They would wanna sit down and pick my brain. And I think sometimes when you're from the west, and if you're used to like what it's like in Europe or in North [00:24:00] America, or even in Singapore for that matter, it's difficult to get those top people to come and sit down with you. When you go there, the top people are constantly looking for, what can I learn from you? Well, how could I start gaining an advantage on this? And I, I used to really like that because suddenly you got access to these people that I'd never get in other countries. Andy: I think similarly in, in Japan, you know, a lot of the senior management there would be very interested in your views on Japan. You they want a different perspective, as well. So I, , you have to sort of be careful not to, to, to come across teaching granny to suck eggs. Right. But, again, I think access to people. being curious, asking questions, showing a genuine interest in that country, in that industry, in that company, in that person, would be good advice for, for someone like you stepping off the boat 30 years ago. CRA: So I, I wanna now switch and look a little bit to the future. I don't spend my whole days and nights looking at geopolitics, but you do, I mean, this is your livelihood and I look at it from the very superficial level 'cause I see what's in the news, but you'll be looking at a lot of other things. So when you look at Asia over the [00:25:00] next 12 to 18 to 24 months, what keeps you up at night? Are there certain risks that you see that maybe we're not talking about yet that exist and they're a little bit worrying? Andy: yes, know, I think in a word, miscalculation. Is one of the sort of biggest risks miscalculation can, can lead to a crisis. We've, we certainly, we've seen this in in previous years in the region and we've got no shortage of geopolitical flashpoints in Asia, and you can be talking about. North Korea, you can be talking about Taiwan, south China Sea. We just had Pakistan and India, throwing some punches at each other and, and particularly if you're thinking about Taiwan, you know, we've seen China rehearse. You know, what it might do there to enforce a blockade of that island, and any miscalculation there could lead to something more serious. actually I'd say also in, in the South China Sea with the Philippines, there is disputes over the reefs and so, which can get quite nasty on people. People [00:26:00] are being, uh, injured in some of these and doesn't take much more for somebody to be killed and. that would be one thing I think, that, keeps you awake at night. Yeah. CRA: But then let's look at it from a positive perspective. So let's go out a couple years from now, what's your best case scenario for how all this plays out with the. Trade wars and the tariff situation and the other instability that we have within the region. Andy: So, so look, I, you know, a lot of it isn't going to go away and I think, a big part of the conversation I've been. for quite some time is that we are in an emerging new global order. all of those certainties, and again, you mentioned 30 years ago, similar to me, came out to Asia first in the, the late eighties and, and then, you know, from the, from the mid nineties onwards. All All of the assumptions that underpinned globalisation in that period from, the 1990s, early two thousands, the WTO, bring barriers to trade down China, joining the WTO in, in in [00:27:00] 2001, global supply chains, all the rest of it. And you'll be very familiar with this, with, with tech. I was just reading, um, Chris Miller's book Chip sort of history global supply. But all of that happened under a, certain set of assumptions around the global economy. All of those assumptions are, challenged, contested, if not thrown out the window, and an increasing, and this hasn't happened overnight. This is something that's been building, at least since the global financial crisis. But it's coming into a, bit more of a sharper focus now. So we are in, does. all the actors will still be here apart from possibly the United States. So that is the biggest question. You know, what is the United States presence and intention towards, Asia? we mentioned Pete. he, earlier on. Talking about, you know, America being, , front and uh, and center. But, um, I think given some of the other actions that we've seen from the, uh, the current administration people, people [00:28:00] question that. Um, China on the other hand is making a great play of saying, you know, we're going nowhere. This is our backyard. We are the trusted, actor in all of this. We do support the global, trading system and, and so on. So things are sort of a little bit topsy-turvy. there. we think about, going out for a few years, some of those tensions will, will still be here. That superpower tension, and how that, other countries fit in with that. I mentioned Japan and South Korea, Philippines, and so on. Vietnam, Cambodia, LA, Myanmar, India, where do all of these actors sit within this? contours of this emerging. world economy, uh, is one thing to look at. one of the questions might be who sort of stands to benefit from all of this? We talked a little bit about Vietnam and how they benefited from that act flow of FDI from, or in, to Vietnam. Some of it from, from China. But there are other countries as well that, if, if they got their act together, uh, if they, you know, invested in their regulatory regime, policy stability, physical infrastructure, digital infrastructure, all. Um, [00:29:00] like, Malaysia, uh, Indonesia, could become increasingly, important as those connector economies, those middle, economies that can connect, US and China, the European Union, GCC and and so on. So, I think the biggest thing holding everybody back at the moment is this, this lack of sort of stability. All the uncertainty, the volatility that, that comes from that as well as that starts to, to sort of calm down. And we would hope as we get into the second half of the year and, and into next year, we do get some more clarity on that. the, the tariff regime is, as long as it's a known quantity, then you can start moving forward. Then you can start making your plans and budgeting and investing or re supply chains, whatever it. That's not where we are at the moment, but that is certainly what will unfold in the next 18 months, barring uh, terrible happening. CRA: Well, well, let's go to that. So this is one of my favorite questions to ask people right now , what if everything just gets really bad? It gets worse than it is right now, and the world's going to hell in a hand basket. Where would you [00:30:00] go? You know, geopolitics way better than I do, so I have a theory on this. Where'd you go? Andy: Yeah. Yeah. listen, I, I, haven't made my billions in Bitcoin, so I don't have my bunker in New Zealand or anything like that at the moment. So I think, know, I'm pretty limited in my options. I'll probably just go down the pub, and, uh, and, and let it all unfold. CRA: I took a year off, , sabbatical a couple years back, and we hiked around the world basically. And I've, I've come up with Uruguay, uh, Monte is my choice, um, for. Andy: amazing. You mentioned that, uh, I had this very conversation two nights ago in Delhi CRA: Yeah. Andy: who said that they've just moved to Uruguay, of what's going on in Europe, uh, Russia, this, that, and the other. And, you know, that was the first time I've heard it twice. In, in, in one week now. Okay. Yeah. CRA: I think it's fascinating down there. Great food, great wine. You got the ocean right there. You're a two hour boat ride from Buenos Aires. . So a a few fun questions to close out here. You've been with The Economist for a long time. Before you, , started your own firm, a lot of what you have to do is you have to predict what is going to happen. [00:31:00] So can you give us an example of maybe one of these predictions that you got right, and one that you missed the mark with? Andy: Okay. So I definitely try to avoid predictions. CRA: Mm-hmm. Andy: rather try to sort of engage in that, uh, foresight. looking at of competing but plausible scenarios for how things might unfold. Whilst I was at The Economist, I did do a lot of. forecast, or at least I used the economic forecasting from the, uh, intelligence unit, uh, in presentations. And then, you know, a year later you go back to the same client and say, oh, okay, yep, China grew a bit more than we thought, uh, it was going to grow, or, uh, this didn't happen or this did happen and so on. and that's fine, At the end of the last year, you know, the focus for this year, trade, Trump and, and, and technology. I think I got most, two, two thirds of that, right? The technology is, is sort of bubbling away, but it hasn't been as front and center as I, I thought it, might be. Yeah, I, I, I, I guess the other thing that I, I think many others, if they were honest, have been surprised by is the [00:32:00] pace of change. since January, really. Uh, and it's one thing after the other and just trying to, catch your breath, uh, in all of that. And, and it's not just, small things. It's, it's. Pretty big foundational issues with the global political economy that are being sort of shaken about a, at a rapid pace. So that's, that's one thing I didn't see coming this year. CRA: Uh, I'll give you my miss because you mentioned Bitcoin. I was approached by a. I'm gonna invest in this thing called Bitcoin. And it was at two 50 at the time. And then, about , 20 16, 20 17, I was in London and I was with the head of innovation for Cisco and we were talking at it and it was about three and we were just agreeing that this is a house of cards. 'Cause my wife was saying, you should buy some more now. And I'm like, no, I'm not gonna do it. So, yeah, I, I also don't have those Bitcoin billions. Andy: Yeah. So I'll, uh, I'll see you down the pub rather CRA: make sure we go for happy hour, so we get cheap pins. Andy: Exactly. I, I think just, just on that though, 'cause it is. a couple of times people have, have mentioned to me, [00:33:00] thanks for the sort of presentation and the insights. It's all a bit gloomy, isn't it? And I, well, yes it is. However, let's, let's not forget, let's try to put some of that to one side. There are a lot of really great fundamentals driving growth, particularly, in this part of the world. you know, those secular drivers of growth that we shouldn't overlook the young dynamic, populations in, in Southeast Asia, the real first for growth and better living, standards in India. All of this sort of drives things forward as well, so gonna happen, you know, regardless. And, and I think also we all have a sort of role in this, in, in sort of trying to live the values that we want to see and, arguing for, a rules-based global trading order. Yes, it needs, you know, changing and it needs revision and so on. But let's not throw it out at the window and go back to a dog eat dog, type of world as well. it's not all doom and gloom. There's, there's some good there. CRA: Uh, and I think especially for Asia, there's a lot of things to be positive about. So I remember back in, must've been November, December, I got invited to a [00:34:00] McKinsey dinner, um, in Amsterdam. And they wanted me to talk about what it's like in Asia, what I saw there versus what I see. I. Going on in Europe. And I think one of the things they had talked about during the night is they need to change here, but it's difficult to change in Europe because of regulation. And they gave the example of, you can't just change curriculum in schools here because that's controlled by unions. And I'm like, you're thinking about what you need to do for your businesses now think about what you need to do for that next generation. all the countries in the Middle East, Singapore, South Korea, they've pivoted curriculum already to start helping younger people understand technology, understand ai. Those people are gonna have such a great head start. And then you've got countries, like you mentioned, with Vietnam, with the young population who are growing up, everything is digitally enabled for them. I mean, there, it's, it's an exciting time and I just love the diversity of the region and I love its future prospects because all those economies have so much room to grow. It's not like everybody's already reached the pinnacle. You know, there's middle classes that are gonna explode across the region. Andy: And, and, and it's not just that big growth story. I mean, I mentioned Japan a few [00:35:00] times. Japan is, is lucky if it can grow it at 1%, GDPA year. But the amount of change, or the pace of change that's taking place in Japan at the moment is, is phenomenal. You know, the last few years, and I go to Japan very regularly, the, the population as you know, is shrinking rapidly. It's about, you know, half a million people a year that disappear from Japan's. Population. Population stands about 127 million people at the moment. Most conservative estimates put that at a hundred million people by 2050, which is not that far away, right? So the space for Japan not to take action has got smaller and smaller. And hence, you're seeing a real explosion of, application of technology. That digital transformation that Japan was sort of well behind. they missed that digital wave back in the nineties. By necessity. They have to do that now. And hence, we're talking about VC down in Southeast Asia, but in, in Japan, really exciting scene there. And these are guys who are solving for those type of societal problems, you know, an aging [00:36:00] population, CRA: Mm-hmm. Andy: for, for, for healthcare, different forms of education, this, that and the other. It's, it's really quite exciting. So, so yes to, to the young population. With a, with a, great, growth path to the, big, solid, mature, economies like, Japan, right the way across the region. I think there's some really great growth, potential interesting, innovations taking place. CRA: Well, I'll do my stint in Europe for a few years, but I look forward to getting back out into Asia Pacific because I find it a lot more dynamic and interesting and it's a lot more fun places to travel for me because I already spent 15 years in Europe before, so I'm looking forward to getting back. Andy: Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll be here for a while. I. CRA: Okay. So one last question about your role right now. So you've been in this job or your company for about eight months. You mentioned you wish you started at six months earlier. What do you understand today about being an independent that you wish you knew when you started out Andy: I, I, I think, good question. I think I, I spent a little bit too much time navel gazing, and trying to [00:37:00] polish who I might be, what, what GeoPoll Asia is, and getting that value proposition, getting a nice website and doing this, that, and the other. Just get out, start talking to people. the market will tell you, you know, what the demand is and tailor accordingly. So you, you know, getting that balance right, I think is one reflection, that I would have. CRA: Okay. And then the final question, now, why Japan? Because you studied there, you've lectured there for a number of years. You've got clients there and the government there. You own a holiday home in Kyoto, which by the way, I looked it up, it looks beautiful, right in the city center. So next time I'm up in Kyoto, I'm gonna be dropping by. what brought you to Japan and why did you stay so long? Andy: So it's, it's a good story. I'll keep it short, but I first went to Japan on the Japan Exchange and Teaching program, jet Program. CRA: Mm-hmm. Andy: was set up by the Japanese government, in the eighties. As part of their sort of internationalization strategies. In fact, it was a sort of related to the, all the trade friction that Japan had with the United States. CRA: Mm-hmm. Andy: that is sort of being replayed again [00:38:00] with, uh, with China. Anyway, I spent three years in the south of Japan. Fukuoka absolutely fell in love with the country. I went back to graduate school. get a master's degree so I could go back to Japan and get myself into the labor market. That led to a PhD with a period of research in, Tokyo. I fell in love with the country. It's history, the people, the food, the geography, everything about it. So, um, one, you know, one thing I I haven't been able to adjust to moving to Singapore from Japan is the lack of seasons. In Japan. Clear, spring, summer, winter, aut you all the rest. I miss that. Japan has a lot going for it. It's got a lot of challenges, uh, a as well. Um, and how they navigate those challenges, I think is gonna be instructive for, for, you know, many governments and companies and societies a around the world. But it's a place of, of great beauty. Um, security, safe, clean, everything works, all the rest of it. Yeah. CRA: It's my favorite place to travel in the world. Bar none. I mean, as you can see from the pictures behind me, I mean, [00:39:00] I collect art from Japan. I, I've hiked across the country, I've cycled across the country. I've done more eating across the country. I go to punk rock festivals there every year. I literally flew from Amsterdam to Tokyo to go to a punk rock festival. I'm 55 years old. I can't believe I still do this. Andy: I, I, I need the name of that festival. I go to Fuji Rock, CRA: Yeah, Fuji Rock. Andy: of Glastonbury. I, you been there for the last four or five years. Um, that's fantastic. But the, if there's one thing I'd, I'd sort of focus on in Japan, it's the countryside. You know, get outta the cities into the countryside. There's a lot of foreigners who have made these fantastic businesses where they fit out, RVs, which you can hire, go into the Japanese countryside. It's just stunning. Yeah. CRA: It's beautiful. So anyway, Andy, thank you so much for spending time with us today to go through the geopolitical situation. And now you make me wanna go back to Fukuoka because I'm craving Ramen and it has the best ramen in the country. Andy: Absolutely does. Yeah. Charles, thanks very much for the invitation. Very much enjoyed it. And, I look forward to, um, all the other guests that you have on and learning from them as well. CRA: [00:40:00] And hopefully we'll see you at the pub soon, but not because the world went to shit, but just because we're in Singapore where we can go to the pub together. Andy: that's a leading indicator. If anybody sees both of us heading to the pub at the same time, they should get worried.