CRA: Andy Staples, welcome back to the Tech Burst Talks podcast. 
 Andy: to see Charles, how are you? 
 CRA: I'm doing very well. It's been an exciting year since we last spoke. A little, a few things have happened 
bit more chaos in the geopolitical spectrum, which is obviously very good for you. 
 I mean, it was just what about 14, 15 months ago you left the Economist and 
started Geo Poll Asia and just in time for Trump tariffs and the complete chaotic world that we're living in today. So how's everything been for you since we last 
 spoke? 
 Andy: So I think um, when we did last speak, you congratulated me on the timing, but I, I think I should have started at six months earlier. At least to give me a bit of a, a lead time in, into all of this. But it's, it's been a very busy year. I mean, everybody knows it just nonstop, right? 
 One thing after the other. And so trying to keep on top of that, working with clients who were struggling, I think many firms were struggling to deal with this in the first place. And the whole sort of the deer in the headlights type of syndrome. What [00:01:00] do we do? 
 How do we react to all of this? Is this for real? Do we just sort of, wait and see And how all of those sort of calculations changed over the years been very, very interesting to observe. 
 CRA: Well, it has been a bit of a wild run. Let's just put it that way, to put it mildly so I can understand why clients are concerned because, and we thought the pandemic 
 was bad. That was more predictable than what's going on today. It is just a bizarre world. I wanna come back to something you said in our podcast last time, which is probably the best answer of the year I got. And I like asking people, if the world goes to shit, where do you go? And your answer was, well, we go to the pub. Because why not, we might as well. So my question to start off today is, on a scale of 1 to 10, how close are we to getting to the pub? And let's say that 10 is you're in the pub, you put the card behind the bar, because I'm gonna be here a while. 
 Andy: Yeah, I think I've definitely put my coat on and I've walked towards the pub and I'm, hoping it's open. 
 CRA: Yeah, well I think there's gonna be a lot of people queuing up there pretty soon, so 
 I'm starting to think the [00:02:00] same way you are. So, Let's also go back to the key themes you had from last year. So you talked about Trump tariffs tech, your predictions for the year pretty much nailed that one spot on. How do you look at that now when you go back? Did you think, wow, I got lucky or, holy shit, it went better than I actually thought. 
 Andy: I think it was a little bit easy to see this coming up over the horizon. We already had a Trump presidency and, it was well telegraphed what was gonna happen when he comes back in, right. That they were gonna be absolutely ready for day one. 
 They've got their agenda set and, and so on. That was a, an easy one. On the tech side of things, I think, you know, this growing. A good friend Alex Capri, who talks a lot about techno nationalism. You know, this has been growing for years. We've seen the sort of the tensions and, and the focus on semiconductors, the technology around all of that. 
 That, of course, was gonna get amplified, and, the tariffs. I think that was, yes, you could expect some more trade friction, but the extent of the tariffs and the disruption was something I. Myself, I wasn't prepared for, and I, I don't think many [00:03:00] others, were. And of course, that continues. 
 We had the whole liberation day and all the so-called negotiations throughout the summer. And then these so-called deals, which again, good friend here, Debbie Elms calls you know, napkin deals because they're literally written on a napkin. And of course, all of these might be ruled. Illegal by the Supreme Court at any moment. 
 So, you know that that sort of continues. But there are some other sides to that as well. in Asia, the big question was the relative tariff rate. When you're thinking about supply chains and do I start moving my supply chain? That's a big cost. These things, you know, you don't just pick them up and move them around, take years, and you've got the whole ecosystem around it and and so on. 
 So you really need to see. You know, what's the difference between say, Malaysia and Vietnam or, or Taiwan and Indonesia. And actually the difference is they haven't changed that much. So I think one of the surprises is that supply chains, yes, of course there's a big focus on their security and resilience and, and [00:04:00] all the rest of it. 
 But there hasn't been that wholesale rejigging of supply chains that I was expecting. And I think many were were looking at as well. That's not to say it's not happening. And then that there aren't sort of pressures to, to really closely look at your supply chain. And, and particularly when it comes to those parts of the supply chain that are in China, and and you've got this whole added layer of transshipment, local content and, and all the rest of it. 
 So there are those issues there. I think the, shifts that supply chains that I and others were thinking of hasn't really taken place. 
 CRA: I think there's another year to start ending on that because who knows what kind of tariffs are gonna come around this time. But you had your three predictions from last year. Are you going with those same ones again, or do you have any new predictions for the upcoming year? 
 Andy: what has come to the end agenda a little bit more. You know, if, if last year was, was the year of trade turmoil, let's say I think we're gonna see, we have already seen in the beginning of the year. Hard power. We talk about the soft power of states. 
 We talk about the hard power of states, we talk about [00:05:00] the influence and all, all these type of things. But we've seen demonstrations from the US of the use of hard power. Economic security equals national security, increasing defense budgets. 
 I mean, the defense sector is going gangbusters, right? And the application of, hard power, that's the harder edge that we'll see throughout 2026. 
 CRA: Yeah, I can't wait to see how they're gonna be able to meet a lot of these defense spending targets across Europe because it's gonna be a challenge. But this is a good segue now because we can talk about Davos because this is the week of the World Economic Forum and yesterday was Trump's speech, which we won't cover it in too much detail, but it was so much fun. 
 We have to talk about it a bit. So to start off with, I just love the fact that he started calling Greenland, Iceland in the middle 
 of it, and a lot of the press has been having fun with that. I just saw that the US Press Secretary, Carolyn Levitt, I think her name is. Has come out and said to a reporter, that's a lie. 
 He never said that. Which of course, maybe half the world just saw him [00:06:00] saying that. So that's, if I find him kind of entertaining, he insulted pretty much every leader he could in the room as quickly as he could. He said he wants ownership of Greenland, but then a few hours later he suddenly backed down from everything. He gave a really strong speech saying that, we want right title and ownership of Greenland, and then a couple hours later, okay, we're not gonna do that and we're not gonna put those tariffs in place. 
 Andy: let's take a step back. And we've sort of seen this movie before, the big bow wave that comes out of the demands, the outrageous demands, and the, the maximum list demands and, and so on. You know, it's a hundred percent it's my way or the highway. Something happens. Generally in financial markets. 
 And there's a rolling back of those demands and suddenly I had a great conversation with Mark Ruter. Suddenly Denmark they understand my thinking, okay, military is off the table. Well, you know, great because nobody thought that, you know, realistically that. The US was going to apply military power there. 
 I don't think it's [00:07:00] particularly surprising, I was working on some scenarios, whereby, he does follow through. security crisis that is caused by all of this. 
 And which leads to, you know, a very sharp trade war perhaps precipitating a financial crisis economic crisis within Europe as well. And then you could start to think about, if the chess pieces are really being shaken to this degree, what scenarios might emerge outta that? 
 What does that mean for, for Europe's relationship with. China, for example, last week, we saw, you know, Kearney in Canada. and we saw his speech obviously at at Davos as well. The British government has just approved China's new super embassy in the uk, which has been a, a very controversial subject for many years. 
 You could start to find some evidence to suggest that there's some movement there, that because of the actions that we're seeing coming out of the, the United States under, under President Trump, that people are very [00:08:00] seriously looking for that plan B. The reason I've had all this in my head, one of the Christmas reading books was Kissinger on China. 
 And looking at that flip in those relationships in the, in the seventies, the Nixon shop, the alignment of interest between the United States and China at that time, vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. That was a paradigm shift. In this environment that we've just been talking about, why not, you know, what else is on the table? 
 What could emerge from that? 
 CRA: people are looking for plan B. And I think probably my favourite moment of Davos this week was Carney's speech, which you mentioned already. It's like we finally have a grownup in the room talking about things. And he basically declared that the US led rules-based international order is experiencing a rupture, not a transition. And what he's doing is urging those, he calls 'em the middle powers countries like Canada, maybe the smaller tier two type countries to create a 3rd path and start working together more. 
 To create different types. So you're basically, you're not always in a subservient [00:09:00] relationship to the big power. Now this sounds great on paper. Do you think this was just a great speech, or do you think this is gonna start getting enacted by a lot of those middle countries? 
 Andy: there's potential for it. And I think we've already seen some of that. Emerging as well, particularly thinking about trade. EU signed the trade agreement with Merck, or although it's now been referred to the courts uc Britain. Join the C-P-T-P-P, the big trade agreement for the, transpacific agreement. 
 And you've got other countries looking to join that as well. People like Vietnam, Thailand Korea you can sort of map out an arc of those middle countries who have a shared purpose and, and a shared interest in some kind of rules based order, right? 
 So, Britain, Canada, the European Union, Singapore, Japan, and others. There's something there. And actually these middle powers have. the they have to be able to do it, for a few years we've been hearing a lot more about the global [00:10:00] south and and so on, and I think people overplay that as a coordinated block. 
 It's very diverse and all sorts of, sort of stresses within that as well. But when you start talking about the European Union, Canada, Japan, Singapore, Australia. Well, there's a lot more similarities and that there's a lot more potential for them to come together and actually do something. Will that evolve? 
 Will that act as some kind of balance or reemerge in place of the US led so-called, rules based order. That's a long term project. That's a generational project, I think. 
 CRA: I think they will have some friendly governments with this because if you look at the way that Prime Minister Lawrence Wong from Singapore has been talking to the public 
 in obviously the last few months. It is again, it's like another adult in the room. He's talking about how things are gonna be difficult, but they're trying to explain rationally what is actually going on in the world. 
 And I think it's one of the few leaders I see in the world actually taking that type of approach. So I'm kind of hopeful that Singapore would get active in this type of 
 engagement. 
 Andy: you're exactly right to, to highlight those [00:11:00] speeches from pm one, one of them right at the end of the year. I think this is understood in a place like Singapore, you know, a city state that's open, that's dependent on trade and investment and the flow of trade and investment as well. 
 So whether it's think tanks or policy makers, you know, in Singapore, that's well understood and that message of the importance of middle powers being amplified by people like Carney. That's a more positive sort of dynamic that we have in, in the world at the moment. 
 CRA: Because what they're trying to do really is get away from dealing with these bullying relationships, and we've seen now that the US is willing to go to extremes when it comes to bullying. We saw what happened in Venezuela with Maduro. We saw what was going on with Greenland. There's rumours in the press that Cuba regime change might be next. How does this play out in Asia? How are they reacting to this and what are they doing to, manage the complexity of this 
 situation? 
 Andy: so, so what you hear a lot of, particularly in in Singapore, but elsewhere across SE Asia is, is don't make us choose. We [00:12:00] want to trade with China. It's our biggest trading partner. We want US security, as, as a sort of moderating force in, in the South China Sea and the Pacific. And we want US investment and we want access to us. 
 Markets don't make us choose. That's underpinned policy within Asia. For many years, the issue is that the space in which you can occupy where you don't have to choose, is getting smaller and whether it's, you know, the technology that you are adopting or the relationships that you have, trading relationships that you have, treaties that you sign, and so on the space to, to be able to work with, with both powers is, has got smaller and smaller. Some countries are better at dealing with this than others. Singapore's, very, very good at this. Malaysia, who is the chair of of aian the aian grouping last year, I think played this very well. Their economy is doing great. 
 They're getting investment in from everybody. They signed a trade agreement with the states, although there's a. [00:13:00] Controversial part in all of that, that China doesn't like. Within the region as a whole, which as you know, is incredibly diverse, there are different approaches to this and some economies and policies will hee a little bit closer this way and some the other way. 
 If you go a bit further up to have a look at Northeast Asia. It is a bit of a different story there. We, of course, had the election of Sam aka Ichi as the first female prime minister of Japan, she's just called an election, which will take place in February and there's a, a sort of harder. 
 Realist edge in Japan. She comes from the sort of right of the party you know, a nationalist hawk. She's been de been described as, but you could also look at her policies as very sort of pragmatic and so on. So maybe I'll take a pause there, but definitely, you know, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, are countries to dig into. 
 CRA: We're gonna come back to those, but I also want to go to the elephant in the room with the current situation, with the US imposing itself on sovereign countries. What does that mean for [00:14:00] China when it takes a look at Taiwan? Do they feel like, well, if you're doing it, why can't we? 
 Andy: I don't think the calculus changes much for the China-Taiwan situation. China's not about to launch any kind of decapitation action on Taiwan, although they were very publicly rehearsing for all of this. But that's, that's all part of the theatre I don't think the calculation has changed. And by the way, the states didn't enact re regime change in Venezuela. They simply kidnapped the leader, you know, the regime. Is there, you know? 
 CRA: I don't think they have a plan on what to do next with that one, but that's a whole separate 
 story. Now, you did mention Japan's new PM Takaichi So she immediately comes in and already they've had a bit of a spat going on with China now, and this has evolved because she made comments about the potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Now since then, it's escalated quite a bit. You had the Chinese Consul literally threaten to. Cut off her dirty neck on X, formerly Twitter. China is [00:15:00] banning Japanese cultural events. A bunch of concerts has been canceled. Tourists are avoiding Japan, which has said has an economic impact of about $367 million according to Bloomberg. But the strange times did just report that tourist revs are still up despite all of that, what's gonna happen with this? Is it going to continue to escalate this tit-for-tat between China and Japan, or do you think it's going to calm down? 
 Andy: So, so a few points on this. Let me sort of talk about the international relations. And then a couple of points on tourism as well. I don't think this is any planned, provocation of, of Beijing. It came out in discussions, in, in the diet, and she was simply reaffirming what Japan's position has been. 
 And, and it's very clear, if there's a security crisis with Taiwan, of course it has implications for, for Japan as well. And, that's been said for many years, but maybe not so, publicly. And so clearly from an a newly appointed pm. 
 It depends where you are, in the region. But definitely in Japan and elsewhere, you get the sense that China has [00:16:00] overplayed its hand on this one. They created a bit of a storm , in a teacup. Japan is used to this. I mean, go back. Over the last 15 years we've had 
 various flareups. South Korea was on the receiving end of this, you know, some years back when they new missile radar system and everything like that was put in place and they felt the weaponization of trade and, and tourism at that point. And in fact, Japan's been trying to reduce its exposure to all of this. 
 Since 2010, , so I think this will sort of die down at some point. You know, both sides will, will, you know, with their face be able to sort of step back from all of it. I don't see it escalating any further. On tourism. 
 This is very interesting. So, yes. The number of Chinese tourists to Japan are down. There was an article in the ni a suggesting that bookings [00:17:00] by individual Chinese, mainland Chinese to Japan for the Chinese New Year period in, in February, were up. 
 50 something percent year on year. So there, there's two things here. There are the big tour groups, right? And they come over on Chinese flights. And they stay in Chinese owned hotels and they go to Chinese owned restaurants. It's called the sort of one dragon strategy that's dried up. The individual Chinese are saying, okay, you are telling me that this is a re-arming militaristic state. 
 I'm gonna go there on holiday for Chinese New Year. There's a bit of a contradiction there. 
 CRA: Well, I'm hoping it ends without any kind of a conflict, which I'm sure it will because like you said, these things tend to happen quite often. You did mention there's a couple other areas within Asia you're keeping an eye on this year because of either a little bit of instability or election. So let's look at the Philippines and Thailand on that one. 
 Andy: both Thailand and Japan have an election on the same day. Just to go back to Japan Taka II's popularity. In spite of, perhaps [00:18:00] because of these tensions with China is in up in the 70% y you know, so she's very popular. Her party, the LDP, a little bit less so than in the forties maybe. 
 So she's, you know, gambling that her popularity will allow her to get a proper majority. And the, and a 
 CRA: Yeah, hence why you call a snap 
 election. Called outta 
 nowhere take advantage of it while you can and hopefully build up your power base in the LDP. 
 Andy: Exactly. So I, I I think she's, she's probably played that right? We'll, we'll see, you know, how the election turns out, it's always a bit of a gamble but that should give her a clear path for her policy agenda, which. Actually, that's not gonna turn tensions down with Beijing because there's, increasing spending on defense. 
 She's looking to upgrade the defense agency to a proper ministry intelligence community developments and, and all the rest of it. Anyway, that's, that's one election. We know what the, we pretty much know what the outcome is gonna be there. Go down to Thailand on the other hand. So you've got a, a general election, but you've also got a referendum. 
 at the same time, and this is a referendum on [00:19:00] constitutional change Thailand has been beset by, you know, political turmoil and policy stagnation for the last year or two growth there is very underwhelming. They've been hit. Hard by the trade war, trade turmoil with states . 
 So they've got a lot of issues to deal with there. There's no suggestion at this point that we'll have a return to the type of big demonstrations that could turn a little bit ugly in Bangkok and so on. 
 That seems to be not on the cards at the moment, which is very good. Jumping across to the Philippines, so there's no elections due there for a couple of years. We had some big natural disasters there, typhoons and floods and and all the rest with massive anger that all the money that should have gone into flood defenses has disappeared and, and so on. 
 President Marcus clearly is, is hued very closely to the United States. By extension Japan. And particularly, you know, this has big implications for, for the security architecture within that part of the world. And of course the Dete family. [00:20:00] Is waiting in the wings, if there were a political change, in the Philippines. 
 That would have big regional implications. It's not on the cards yet, but it's definitely something to keep in mind. and the Philippines chair, Ian this year as well, and they will want to put maritime security right at the top of the agenda for Ian, which speaks directly to the tensions in, in the South China Sea. 
 And and China's territorial claims there as well. 
 CRA: I want to close out looking at, the Ian by looking at Singapore because as you know, I lived there for 15 years. I still track it. I still miss it. How's Everything going in Singapore. It seems like PM. Wong has been doing a good job keeping people informed. It looks like growth was decent, 
 where despite all the instability, what do you see on the ground right now in Singapore? 
 How is it doing? How is it handling these crises? I know they were invited to be on the Board of Peace and I think they've politely said they will evaluate it. What's your take on Singapore? Right. 
 Andy: go back to a little bit earlier last year where we had the election and the People's Action Party in increased their number of seats in, [00:21:00] in Parliament. It's quite clear that, in times of turmoil there's a flight to sort of safety and so on, and parts of the messaging for, from the party was, you know, stick with us. 
 We know what we're doing. It's a hostile environment outside and so on. And there's a lot of. There's a lot of credibility in that as well. You know, Singapore probably better than I do. And the quality of their policy makers and, you know, the whole establishment around that. They're adept at this. 
 They do engage in all of that foresight scenario analysis. They are prepared to respond rather than simply react , to what's going on in the world. So I think headline, growth will slow a little bit this year, but it will still be, you know, positive and the economic, fundamentals of of Singapore remain very strong. 
 One thing that is now just over a year old, is the, the special economic zone with johor this is gathering momentum. It's very successful. Johor has been attracting huge amounts of [00:22:00] investment, particularly into data centres and they're building out that whole ecosystem at a very rapid pace. 
 That gives Singapore a bit of a bigger hinterland. It allows Johor and by extension Malaysia to tap into the regional hub that Singapore is. So that, that's a, that's a positive development and a sort of micro region level. 
 CRA: I'm glad that they haven't gone down the Trump path and saying I have to have Jho to be my own. I like the way that they've been working in developing that area. And you're right, I think for a lot of those things, especially data centers, 'cause people don't want data centres in their backyard you know, putting that across the border over there, it builds up the environment, the tech skills in that area, and it expands the whole Singapore region a bit. Gives it more power to. 
 Andy: Just a bit on that, you know, by extension, I think Malaysia had a very good year last year. Geopolitically, you know, neutrally positioned the big inflows of, of foreign direct investment in data centres And by extension, you know, the whole tech field semiconductors. I spoke at a conference in Penang. 
 for that [00:23:00] sector you know, very bullish, big investment, big orders, they're very well positioned and they've been building up those ecosystems for very many years. Malaysia has played a very good game and I think they've got wind in, in their sails there as well. 
 Just to jump across to, to Vietnam, 'cause that's another very important country. A hundred million people growing at over 6%. You know, you don't want to ignore that. And, and of course they were right at the forefront of being buffeted by you know, terrorists from Trump. They were one of the main beneficiaries of the China plus one strategy and, and so on, and their exports to America went stratospheric. 
 They've responded, they pivoted very quickly. So we've seen some really interesting policy developments in government streamlining government, cutting through red tape. Really focusing on making the business environment more attractive to foreign investors, focusing on new drivers of growth there as well. 
 So, you know, it's, it's a very interesting set of responses around the region. 
 CRA: Let's not [00:24:00] forget that about, was it 16 to 18% of Vietnam's? GDP is Samsung. If you ever get out to Samsung City outside of 
 Hanoi, it is just, it's massive. So, well, it's good to see that that's still going well because I'm still quite bullish on the future of Vietnam. I wanna come back one more and I gotta put you on the spot on Singapore. So, and I wanna get more of a sentiment on what people think about what's going on. So, obviously the US has put in a new ambassador into Singapore. And it was a bit comical before he came in 'cause he got destroyed by the Senate confirmation hearings because he didn't really know anything about ASEAN 
 Andy: That Was cringe. 
 CRA: one of the first things he did I dunno if it was a letter, but it got into the press that he framed that the US tariffs on Singapore as the US asking for a favour from a friend who had benefited from US security support over the decades. So tariffs saying it's a favour for friends. 
 I think that's, that's maybe the new way we should be positioning all these things. I want more favors from more friends. that didn't really look good when it came out in the press. And the funny thing is because Singapore press is not overtly. Gonna be [00:25:00] anti-American. They were polite but they did call it out. What's the sentiment on that? How do you think the Singaporean are thinking of the US as an ally at this stage? 
 Andy: I think there's a lot of eye-rolling This is something that we need to manage, and we'll do that in a very, sort of pragmatic, polite way and hope that we don't, come into the gun sites as other countries have done so, thank you. You know, we've heard it. We want to work with you. 
 We want to help and support you. Delighted to welcome your nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, to Changi Naval Base, and what else can we be doing for you and so on. 
 CRA: I'll be honest with you, I, I feel so bad for the Singapore politicians 'cause as you mentioned, they are highly educated. They know everything about technology to geopolitics. And now suddenly they're having to deal with this kind of crap. It's gotta just be like, you're like, eyerolling must just be the new norm. 
 Andy: I think so. You know, it is very interesting. You know what Singapore's like. You don't see roundness in the streets, you don't see sort of mobs of drunken football supporters [00:26:00] going through, they're not used to that type of behavior. But at the same time, as I say, they're very well positioned to, to respond diplomatically. 
 Singapore always plays its diplomatic cards very, very well. It knows that it's an incredibly rich society and it, and it has a very important role within Ian, but it, it hides its light and, and it you know, when somebody else makes a suggestion that, that they would like to book forward, you know, well done. 
 What an excellent thinking. You know, even though it came from sort of Singapore they, they play a very good game. 
 CRA: Trust me. After being back now in Europe for probably almost 18 months, I, I miss the efficiency of how Singapore is governed I still track it every day in my news and I'm kind of like, God, I missed that so much. So, but let's, let's segue away from this. We've been talking a lot more about geopolitics, but let's talk about its impact on business. 
 ' cause a lot of the work that you do is advising. Large Western MNCs and you sit in a number of different roles and boards. What is the sentiment that you're seeing now with these businesses that are trying to operate in Asia, [00:27:00] dealing with regular chaos, tariff chaos, and everything else, supply chain chaos. 
 What are you seeing on the ground with your clients right now? 
 Andy: Yeah, so, so maybe two or three points there. And, and obviously beginning of the year a lot of sort of wait see, particularly when the so-called liberation day tariff rates were, were announced and that continued through the summer. And so what, what do we mean by wait see? Well, we're not gonna make any big investment decisions. 
 We're not gonna, you know, do anything now that's, that's gonna come back and and, and hit us, a few months or, or a couple of years down on that. And of co when we're talking about big investments, it's, you know, a shipping line, thinking about the type of ships that they want, because trade patterns might be changing. 
 So, well, do I need more of these? Ships that sell within the region or the massive bulk carriers and container ships that go right the way across the Pacific and Atlantic and so on, that, you know, these are big multi-year investments, the data centers the, the infrastructure and, and all the rest of it. 
 So there's a lot of sort of wait and [00:28:00] see that that was one thing. The second thing was. All the attention, particularly for American firms and to, to a, you know, a similar degree in Europe as well. All the attention was at home, you know, on home markets and, and so getting the type of attention, if you are a regional head of a, of a multinational here, getting the attention that you need to be able to grow your business within this part of the world and the understanding of the dynamics of this part of the world, I think that became challenging as well. 
 And some of the responses from firms were. And, and this was a big part of my messaging that you, you going back to Carney it's, it's not a transition, it's a rupture. You really need to understand that, that that things have changed and that whole period of the nineties, two thousands, you know, when you grew up, when you were, had junior managerial positions, when you did the NBA and all of the rest, all of those assumptions, all of the certainties of that. 
 Or out the window, you are now in a new environment, you're gonna have to, you know, change. And, and, and that means fundamental change at the board level. It, it's [00:29:00] strategy, your business model and, and all the rest of it. Some of the, I I think more forward thinking companies grasp that earlier than, than others, you know, companies you mentioned, you know, COVID earlier on, all the challenges for that many companies I think were were very internal focused. 
 Driving their digital transformation and, and accelerating all of that, dealing with supply chain chaos and, and so on. And now they look up and the world has changed quite dramatically. And, and again, the ones that are sort of ahead of the curve, who, people who realise that and they need to build. 
 They need to build that geopolitical muscle. There's a paper out just last week from IMD BCG and the World Economic Forum with that very subtitle, you know, time to Build your Geopolitical Muscle. And that's the sort of phrase that I've been using throughout the world. That understanding of the world and the dynamics and what it means for your business, your strategy, business model, and so on. 
 I think that that had atrophied You know, because he didn't need it. The, the rules based order, you know, free trade [00:30:00] liberalism, all the rest of it. So who needs to worry about geopolitics and now that's come roaring back. Well actually, I don't know enough about it. So, the firms that have sort of got on top of that are the ones who recognise that they have gaps in their knowledge. 
 That there are blind spots in their peripheral vision. And they're taking efforts to to deal with all of that. 
 CRA: Well, I'm hoping that it gets a little bit more stable for them 'cause it'd be good to see growth get back to more normal levels. And I know some countries haven't reached the levels they probably would have if there was a little bit less turmoil. What I wanna go onto next is some of the miscalculation risks you talked about last year. You said keep you awake at night. Not, you had mentioned this, some stuff around Taiwan. You've got issues coming up with Trump's unilateral actions, or are these gonna start spreading to other regions? What are you concerned about this year? 
 Andy: I guess going back to the earlier conversation around, you know, if last year was all about trade turmoil and so on. Okay. Sort of get that and, and we know where Trump is coming from and his advisors and Lighthizer and, and, and all the rest of it. But then we did see military action [00:31:00] in, in the Middle East and, and elsewhere as well, but Okay. 
 We've sort of seen that as limited, you know, airstrikes and all the rest of it. The action in, in Venezuela and then hot on the hills of that. Of this, you know, nonsense around Greenland. I think that's more worrying. And this has been enunciated in that national security strategy document that came out late last year as well. 
 That was another thing that a lot of people were waiting to see. What's gonna be in that, particularly in Asia and particularly with reference to, you know, where is the US when it comes to its relationship with Japan, with South Korea, with Taiwan with the Philippines in particular. 
 So that document came out and you know, very clear focus on the Western hemisphere. And very hot on the hills of that. We, you know, we've seen these actions. First of all, it's the, blowing up of the alleged drug running boats and then the decapitation action in, in Venezuela. 
 And, and as you point out, no plan B and so there's more of this, [00:32:00] this happening and it sort of reinforces that idea that, you know, that Kearney was saying this is, this is not a transition, this is, this is a rupture. We haven't seen the states doing this in our lifetime. 
 Right? There's this so-called Don Rowe. mock doctrine. And I was gonna say Rin there because you could mock it. But anyway Don Rowe doctrine he's putting military hardware behind them, military assets that's new. This is new. That's a big worry, I think. 
 How does that spread? What are the signals to, to, to Mr. Putin? Or elsewhere within the world. Yeah, that's another worry. 
 CRA: What's your best case scenario for 2026 for Asia? What's the best outcome? Is it to just survive the chaos? 
 Andy: Yes, we've had a rupture in, in the global order. The rules based order is sort of gone and, and so on, but steady as she goes. The global economy is, is still sort of chugging forward. Demand takes place. People have their business plans, their strategic investments, and and so on. 
 But, but we're emerging into, into [00:33:00] something different, a different type of, of globalisation I think the best sort of case scenario is steady as we go. We don't have any major blowups. I mean, you know, Venezuela. What's the impact on, on, on global markets? Well, immediately sort of very limited, but what are the long-term implications of all of this? 
 What are the, the unknowns that sort of, that stem from those type of actions? That, that that's what our, what I'll be more worried about. I do think we'll see more of a regional focus, around economies. And whether that's the European Union. Externally putting up barriers to, Chinese trade and investment. 
 That's one response or really taking a look internally at what Europe needs to do to sort of stimulate growth and and all the rest of it. A lot of the, discussion in, in Asia, particularly in Southeast Asia, is, is a need to deepen regional economic integration. 
 But I wouldn't hold my breath for that. Neil shearing at Capital Economics talk about the fragmented age, and I think that's a [00:34:00] good sort of analogy for all of this. Things are fragmenting. So where do you sit? What fragments are you sort of working with within the global economy? 
 CRA: Now we're gonna move on to, I dunno what I wanna call this, maybe like the fun round. So I'm gonna ask you a bunch of questions that I have in the back of my head that we don't have time to go into all of them. So just give me your quick answers. On these various topics. Number one, what was your favourite moment from Davos this week? 
 Andy: actually, I think Jamie Dimon getting a little bit hot under the collar with Zanny Minton Beddoes 
 CRA: That sounds interesting. We talked about this one previously. My favourite one was Treasure Secretary Lutnick. Giving a speech at the BlackRock dinner that Larry Fink was hosting and chaos ensued where he was getting jeered and booed by Al Gore and some other people. ECB President, Christine Legarde got up and walked out of the event and they actually ended the dinner before dessert because it was so chaotic. 
 It's playground politics. And all I kept thinking is it's kind of like kids. Down at the beach, building up a big sandcastle, working together to build it. And then some big fat bully comes in and kicks it [00:35:00] over. He is like, I'm the boss now. 
 Andy: it's not very edifying, is it? 
 CRA: yeah. So next prediction. 
 What's the next country that's gonna get the Trump treatment? 
 Andy: you know, Cuba's at the front of the line there, isn't it? You, you know, Venezuelan oil, which has been critical to its economy, has been or will be, you know, cut off. Yeah, I think Cuba's not if, if I was in Cuba, I'd be I'd be worried. 
 CRA: Now we'll go back into Asia. So with Japan Takaichi and China Xi Jinping who blinks first in this? Is it gonna be China or Japan, or is it just gonna go away and we'll forget about it? 
 Andy: I think it will just die down, and I think we'll have a mutual sort of recognition of, okay, we went there, we're not gonna go there anymore. I would hope to see that, you know, there might be some flareups. And going back to the idea of miscalculations, you, you, you know that the activity around the borders, around in, in this senkaku and, and places like this, Okinawa, and you, you know, there's potential there for things to go wrong. 
 Let's not forget. That there was a laser targeting incident just a few weeks [00:36:00] back, which, which you know, was unprecedented. So things could flare up and spiral outta control, but I think in both Beijing and Tokyo, there's, there's no appetite for that. 
 CRA: that's good to know. Good. Some positive news on this one. With all this chaos that we're gonna be going through for the next 12 months, 'cause who knows what's gonna happen? Give me a prediction, which country is gonna fare the best, whether that's economically or politically this year in Asia? 
 Andy: This year in Asia. A I mean, We've already talked about, you know, Malaysia being well positioned. I think Vietnam will, will be doing very well as well. India, we haven't talked about India, which has been trying to sort of keep its head down underneath the parapet a little bit. 
 Will it get a trade deal with America? It's got one with the European Union now and so on. It will be welcoming You know, elevated levels of foreign direct investment. The economy is growing at a decent rate. You know, that's, a quiet success story. And let's not forget, you know, 
 it's its population is, is bigger than, than [00:37:00] China's, and it's growing faster than China. It Won't be another China, but it will be a, a, a great success story. I think is is a country that's well positioned. Its economy is growing, what, six, six and a half percent or so lot of foreign direct investments, going in. It's again, successfully managing to, to work with 
 the United States with Europe, with Japan even better relations now with, with China. And of course, even though they've committed to sort of phasing some of their sand, it gets cheap oil from Russia. 
 CRA: Okay, next question. Which Ian or Asia Pacific leader do you think is playing their cards best right now? With the whole turmoil of what's going on, I. 
 Andy: if we were looking at last year, I'd say Prime Minister Anwar in Malaysia. Then I think it has to be PM one. 
 CRA: I would agree with you on Wong although I am very curious to see how this new PM in Japan's gonna work out, so she's got a 70 plus percent approval rating that's not normal in Japan. 
 So we'll see how long that one can last 
 for. Next [00:38:00] one. Looking at ASEAN in particular, do you think any country in ASEAN is gonna really pivot hard towards China and ignore the US relationship this year? 
 Or do you think they'll try to still stay in between the two 
 Andy: I think steady as she goes. Indonesia, we didn't really talk about, but that would be one to, to look at there. a few weeks ago they announced a big purchase of, of military hardware from China. For example, and you've got a big Chinese presence there, particularly in resource extraction. Very early on in Prabowo's term, he was very active flying around the world, trying to be friends with everybody as well. 
 So that's, that's an interesting country to look at. But I, I, I wouldn't expect any particular change. In, in the fundamental relationships between ASEAN nations and and China as a whole, the block, I think there's some tensions within the block, and I mentioned earlier on, you know, the, the Philippines being the chair of ASEAN this year. 
 They will certainly be looking to [00:39:00] push their agenda when it comes to territory claims in the South China Sea, west Philippines sea. So that is a source of tension that could flare up. 
 CRA: And the final one in this section is about risks. You look at all different types of geopolitical risks. What is something that is the most overrated risk where you think people are worried about this, where actually it's not that big of a deal? I. 
 Andy: good question. We spent a lot of last year talking about. ai you know, the risks around AGI and acres of, of newsprint on, you know, we're all gonna be slaves to to a singularity and so on. Maybe that's a little bit overrated. And the application of ai seems to be taking its time. 
 CRA: Then the most underrated for something, but we should be looking at more seriously that we're not. 
 Andy: take Trump seriously. In terms of where the states is going and the actions that we're seeing. There's a lot of theatre there, but then there is that, that iron fist that's being used. So, [00:40:00] you know, let's not downplay the significance of that for the world, 
 CRA: now we're gonna close out with a little bit on the business side. So when a Western CEO comes into you and says, should I be expanding in Asia still? What's your view on that? 
 Andy: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, do your homework, but fundamentally this is, where all the growth is, where the population is, where all the potential is. You've got, you know, in many countries, very favourable demographics and so on and so on. Don't get wrapped up in. In in too much of a risk profile, you need to be looking for where the opportunities are and they're legion here. 
 CRA: it's been a little bit over a year now since you started GeoPoll Asia. So what's the best part about having your own geopolitical advisory firm in a world that is complete chaos? 
 Andy: one of the reasons I started Geo Poly is 'cause I really wanted to focus on the things that I enjoy, I'm interested in, and I found I'm, I'm good at and this year. You know, I've read, I've reengaged with all that, that think tank work. You know, I've [00:41:00] attended those seminars, I've asked those questions, I've read this, I've written that, and so on. 
 That's been a real joy to, to sharpen the focus on, on, on geopolitics and, and of course relating that to what that means for business. So that's that's been a great part of the of the last year or so. 
 CRA: And to close out, it's gonna be back to the pub again. We need to figure this out. Where do you think we're gonna be at the end of this year? You mentioned right now you're getting your jacket on looking at the pub because things are a little bit crazy. What's gonna happen by the end of 2026? Are you gonna be going closer to the pub? 
 Are you gonna be putting your card behind the bar? 
 Andy: Well, you know, what, what are the variables? What's gonna happen to the US economy? What's gonna happen to at the midterms? Is there going to be any crisis that erupts, you know, a security crisis? A financial crisis? Let's reconvene a little bit later in the year and, and see whether it's time to go and buy a pint or not 
 CRA: I think we're gonna have to do this podcast more often because with how many news crazy updates are coming in every week, we'll need more geopolitical updates to keep everybody informed. 
 Andy: [00:42:00] Indeed. Excellent. 
 CRA: All right. And well, thank you so much for taking time out of your evening to share your thoughts. This incredibly interesting and crazy environments that we're both living through right now. And hopefully I won't be seeing you in the pub anytime soon because the world is ending, but hopefully it's just because I'm back in Singapore and we can catch up for a drink. 
 Andy: That'd be great. I'll look forward to it. Really enjoyed the discussion as ever. We've gone over a lot of ground. There's so much going on in the world, and, and I think part of the challenge is, is keeping a, a steady head on all of this and, and to be looking beyond all the noise to the signals. 
 What really matters within all of this. That's the important thing. 
 CRA: Let's face it, we didn't even cover anything from the GCC. We barely covered some of the large markets like Indonesia or India. So I think we definitely have to do another podcast again relatively 
 Andy: Absolutely. I'll look forward to it. Thanks, Eva. Really enjoyed it. 
 CRA: Pleasure. Thanks again. 
 Andy: Cheers.